Wisdom of the Common Man
Facts-Truth-Reality-Common Sense
Climate Science: Friend or Foe?
Why the IPCC is wrong about climate. Action must be taken to stop this trainwreck!
Publish Date: March 31, 2022
Global Warming, Climate Change, Anthropogenic Influence, Greenhouse Gas, Rapid Snow Melt, Rising Sea Levels, Rising Ocean Temperature, Drought, Flood, and Catastrophic Weather Events. The media thrives with articles based on these events; we see these words virtually every day. The IPCC has been creating reports on the state of our climate for 30 yrs. The statement below sums up their goal:
“A.1 It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.”
Let me qualify here: Their definition of Human Influence includes anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, land use and deforestation. But their overriding emphasis is on greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2), with land use and deforestation getting lip service. Land use and deforestation are by far the biggest human influence on regional climate. Most remedial action focuses on CO2 reduction and even includes ways to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Most model projections are based on increases in CO2 concentrations.
My mission is to show, with real science, that carbon dioxide is not responsible for global warming!! Unfortunately, it can’t be done with 2 paragraphs, so please stay with me.
First let me start with something new, that I identified and defined. This concept is completely logical and undeniably true, with no science education needed to understand. It explains so much about why we have gradual global warming:
The main factor driving Global Warming: Solstice Heat Paradigm.
Scientists give names to every part of our world and the expansive universe, all the way down to the structure of an atom! I’ve created a name and definition for what I know to be the most important driver of long term, gradual Global Warming, which causes a changing climate.
Solstice Heat Paradigm: “Severe double heating of the earth within +/- 10 deg latitude of the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, with double heating across the Northern and Southern Hemispheres following solstice. The effect is due to the cumulative properties of Solar Irradiance.”
Do you want proof this phenomenon is real? Simply open Google Earth, turn on “Grid” under “View” and display the entire earth. Note that the Tropic of Cancer runs straight thru the middle of the Sahara Desert and the Middle East. Also note that the Tropic of Capricorn runs straight thru the bottom of South Africa and Australia. These are simply the easiest to recognize areas.
You might ask: Why doesn’t that band of devastation circle the entire globe? The answer is: land area, plant cover, topography, adjacent bodies of water, variations in water vapor, global wind patterns, ocean currents and more. All these key factors drive our climate! This is not a simple answer. The weather on our planet is so complex and chaotic, it can only be described in basic terms. We understand the various elements of weather, but don’t have a clue about what happens next.
The marked-up screenshots of Google Earth (Figures 1 and 2) show the locations perpendicular to the sun (maximum insolation) at a given time of the year.
Across the equator the sun continually moves in a latitudinal direction during the year, which creates a true tropical, equatorial climate. At the solstices June 22 and Dec.22, the sun stops and reverses direction, giving those areas double heat. Solar irradiance is cumulative, which results in July, August being the hottest months in the northern hemisphere and January, February in the southern hemisphere. Conversely, those hottest months are coldest in the opposite hemisphere. Although the double heating is most severe at solstice lines, the entire Northern and Southern Hemispheres receive double heat, diminishing toward the poles. However, part of the solar irradiance lost to reflection is offset by slower rotation of the earth toward the poles. Remember, heating of the earth by solar irradiance is cumulative!
The sun doesn’t move, obviously. The tilt (23.4’) and orbit of the earth around the sun causes that, but the sun essentially moves from our fixed perspective on earth. Another factor is the speed of earth’s rotation: Rotational speed at the equator – 24,900 mi. circumference / 24 hrs. = 1,038 mph. At Tropic of Cancer – 22,487 mi. circumference / 24 hrs. = 937 mph. Further: 1038 mph. – 937 mph. = 101 mph. difference in rotational speed. That difference causes 9.7% more solar irradiance per unit time at solstice versus the equator, adding to the double heating effect at solstice. The same formula works for the southern hemisphere as well. Continuous movement of the sun across the equator and resulting plant life (plant life is the greatest temperature modulator on land), makes the equator’s average temperature cooler and more consistent year around. Deforestation in the tropical regions has serious consequences for the global climate!
Recognizing the dramatic effect of Solstice Heat Paradigm on our climate, answers many questions.
Before talking atmosphere, we must discuss solar irradiance.
Solar Irradiance:
Heat from the sun reaching the earth is the heart of weather. Without heat nothing happens. Heat causes rapid evaporation of surface water into water vapor (the importance of water vapor will be discussed later as the dominant climate related part of the atmosphere) to form clouds and moves the atmosphere around via convection.
Sunlight powers photosynthesis in all plants. Plants transpire water vapor (during the day) which transports heat into the atmosphere. Natural reflective properties and supplying shade make plants the most important heat modulator on earth.
There are basic wind patterns caused by rotation of earth and Coriolis Effect, but the real mixing happens when solar irradiance causes rising columns of heat and water vapor from ocean and land areas. Additionally, the continents stir up the wind patterns during rotation of earth.
It’s an undeniable fact that maximum solar irradiance is applied to objects perpendicular to the sun. Throughout the year the sun is perpendicular to a relatively small portion of the earths’ surface at any given time. If the earth were flat, all parts would receive the same intensity. It is round of course, and the heat gradient changes for every degree in latitude and longitude by reflection. Solar irradiance also varies considerably by topography, clouds, and plant cover.
Figure 3 above shows how the suns’ rays are not perpendicular to most surfaces of the earth, as a smooth sphere. However, the earth is not smooth so objects such as mountains and buildings present themselves to be perpendicular (depending on their latitudinal location). The further an object is from perpendicular the more heat is reflected. Moving closer to the poles increases reflectivity. Solar irradiance on the earth varies dramatically by location. Using the equator as the point of maximum insolation (equinox), solar irradiance will be maximum at the equator, minimum at the poles. Between those points solar irradiance varies by surface type, elevation, reflectivity (albedo), clouds and ground cover (plants).
The Arctic and Antarctic circles encompass 66.6 deg. to 90 deg. (north/south) and are both in darkness at the spring and fall equinox (when the sun is over the equator). They are the lands of the midnight sun and have 24 hr. daylight for 6 mo. per year. They are also in complete darkness for 6 mo.! Even at summer solstice, the North and South Poles are tilted away from perpendicular to the sun causing a high amount of reflectivity, hence low solar irradiance. Only vertical objects (mountains, hills, and vertical snow/ice formations) will get significant heat. If you’ve been led to believe that temperature of the atmosphere melts snow, ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers, guess again! It’s a fact that atmospheric temperature has minimal (closer to zero) effect on snow melt. Direct sunlight on the snow (as in vertical faces) and on land surfaces touching the snow are what causes melting. Also, snow and ice can turn into water vapor via sublimation, although a terribly slow process.
Starting at your house you will see gradual heating from dawn until maximum heat about 2-4 pm. Why isn’t it hottest at 12 pm (maximum insolation)? Solar irradiance is cumulative until the angle of the sun reaches a point of reflectivity. Then the temperature will start to fall and will cool until dawn. During night, the sensible heat of all objects near and including your house will radiate heat while the sun is absent. Water vapor is released 24/7 and during the night cools the earth and carries latent heat into the atmosphere. The overnight temperature drop is called Diurnal Air Temperature Variation. We’ll discuss this further when we talk atmosphere.
Am I ignoring the effect of CO2 in this daily heating cycle? Truth is, without CO2 plants can’t grow! Since it’s an undeniable fact that plants cool the earth, CO2 does play a role, just not the role the IPCC portrays. More on that under atmosphere.
Let’s discuss Anthropogenic effects on climate.
The real human influence on climate is Land Use, Deforestation and Global Transportation. Certain activities generate heat, surface objects absorb heat. Objects and surfaces absorb different amounts of heat; composition and color are two factors. The sheer variety of objects with different heat characteristics is too complex to detail in this piece.
The best way to see this for yourself, buy an inexpensive Infrared Thermometer. One version I have is for checking barbeque temperature. They’re also great for checking doors, windows, and other parts of your house for air leaks. It’s a gun like device, with a trigger. Point the laser beam at any object to see its temperature. Go outside and check temperatures on various surfaces around the house. Check sunny and shady spots at various times of the day. Look at asphalt in the sun, probably the hottest temperature you’ll find. If your grass is green, check its temperature. You should see around 85-90 deg. (F). Check any plant and you’ll see similar temperature. Plants transpire water vapor during the day, cools them off just like perspiration cools you off. They also have reflective characteristics to keep cool. Trees, grass, and other plants also shade the ground.
Now you can relate to the next part, how our changes in land use and deforestation affect regional temperature. As to how it effects long term global temperature, the jury is still out.
Land Use: What did the United States look like in 1850? Trees, grass, and all manner of plants, which helped keep the surface temperature much cooler. We know there are desert areas from Arizona to Washington, once part of the inland sea, with business as usual. There have been vast amounts of trees, grassland, and plants replaced with heat absorbing and generating structures since 1850.
Here’s a list of major things that absorb solar irradiance and heat the United States.
1) Buildings: Pick a number? 200 million? Absorb vast amounts of heat in summer.
2) Vehicles: Est. 268 million in use. Car/truck/RV dealerships and auto wrecking yards? Cars, trucks, and R/Vs are like ovens in summertime.
3) Asphalt: Est. 4.2 million miles of roads; Parking lots Est. 24,000 sq mi. Asphalt (black) soaks up more heat than most anything and holds it well!
4) Cement: Impossible to know how much, but a staggering amount! Higher reflectivity than asphalt, but most cement structures are vertical (facing the sun)!
5) Rail System: Est. 28,000 locomotives, 1.6 million rail cars, 150,000 miles of track. Majority of tracks go east-west, south side of track ballast facing sun. Metal rails heat slower but hold heat longer. Railroad ties are usually treated with creosote, making them dark and heat absorptive.
There are more man-made structures absorbing heat, but you get the idea. There was a rapid increase in 1950, after WWII, of everything listed above. Population in 1950 – 151 million, 2000 – 282 million, and 2020 – 331 million. What a difference in temperature if all of that were replaced by trees, grass, etc.?
Now a list of major items that generate heat:
1) Ground vehicles of all types: car, recreational vehicle, truck, bus, and train.
2) Jet and gas driven planes and helicopters (including military).
3) Industrial processes.
4) Buildings heated for comfort and survival (even in summer at higher latitudes and elevation).
The result is higher day and night-time temperatures during summer and winter, caused by heat generation! Above is a sample. I know you can expand the list!
Deforestation:
Deforestation creates multiple effects:
1) Loss of the temperature regulating ability of trees; In tropical rainforests, loss of myriad plants below the canopy.
2) Loss of water vapor due to transpiration.
3) Exposed land surfaces absorb solar irradiance. Heat absorption depends on latitude; south and west facing mountains, in mid to northern latitudes, absorb high amount (mountains exposed by logging and wildfire); deforestation in the tropical zone allows direct solar irradiance on exposed land (maximized when the sun is directly overhead).
4) Loss of shade.
You can see that deforestation causes increased solar irradiance on the earth, which increases regional summer temperatures. Adding land use elements will multiply the effect.
What you see above is at least a thumbnail view of Human Influence on climate. The long-term effect on Global Climate is difficult, if not impossible, to quantify. Above about 35 deg. north/south latitude (majority of human population), the gain in summer temperatures is probably erased during winter with freezing temperatures. The result is likely no net gain in the “Energy Budget” that could affect global warming.
At the tropics, 23.4 deg. latitude north/south, is a different story. The topography varies greatly in the tropics: oceans, deserts, rainforests, 20,000 ft. mountain ranges to name a few. The gain/loss factors from each area that could cause gradual global warming, most likely can’t be measured.
The oceans could be the exception. Approximately 75% of the tropics is ocean. Taking that to an estimated 33 deg. due to Solstice Heat Paradigm, expands the ocean surface receiving significant solar irradiance. Oceans gain heat much slower than land but also lose heat slower. Therefore, that ratio will be the most likely culprit that causes gradual global warming.
Ocean currents are a key factor in modulating that heat, and the science involved is too complicated to cover fully in this article. However, here are vital facts and a graph of ocean currents:
1) The earth rotates 1,038 mph, toward the east, at the equator. Resulting in air and ocean currents move toward the west.
2) The Coriolis Effect directs that momentum toward each pole, south to Antarctica, north to the Arctic. The equator is the dividing line.
3) The Coriolis Effect has the currents moving north/west in the northern hemisphere, but the Asian and American continents (just two major examples) block the N/W flows and direct currents to the north Pacific and north Atlantic, respectively.
4) The resultant major currents are the Kuroshio Current (Asia) and the Gulf Stream (America).
5) The movement of warm water north brings cold water south, creating a complex weather system that varies dramatically with the seasons.
6) Without this ocean circulation, the tropical oceans would be much warmer, and the poles would be much colder.
Atmosphere:
Movement of atmosphere is the catalyst for weather. Atmosphere transports one of the most climate reactive molecules on earth, H2O (water vapor). That’s a lot like saying your heart is the most important organ, but what would the heart be without a brain, lungs, etc. Let me be clear, all gases can be heated. Solar insolation heats the atmosphere and earth during the day, earth releases latent heat from evaporation and sensible heat from solid surfaces, which passes through the atmosphere to space. Heat radiating from the earth passes through the atmosphere, but no element retains heat except water vapor. Even water vapor releases its heat upon condensation.
It’s strange to hear mention of “Atmospheric lifetime” regarding greenhouse gases. The dominant role of water vapor is marginalized by the reported “9-day residence time”. Water vapor is released continuously, cooling the earth while retaining heat in the atmosphere. Does the age of H2O molecules matter?
Yet, “Carbon dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely.[37][27] Although more than half of the CO2 emitted is removed from the atmosphere within a century, some fraction (about 20%) of emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.[38][39][40]” (Courtesy: Wikipedia – Greenhouse Gas). The implication being that longevity makes CO2 more potent than other greenhouse gasses. What difference does it make how long CO2 molecules stay in the atmosphere; do they get more potent with age? CO2 is always there and continuously removed from the atmosphere by ocean, land, and plants! The significant role of CO2 is photosynthesis by plants and respiration in humans. CO2 has other natural and industrial functions. However, heating the earth is not one of them!
Water vapor covers the entire earth to an altitude where it condenses to clouds. According to the Wikipedia article “Water Vapor”, “99% of water in the atmosphere is water vapor with an estimated volume of 3.4 x 1015 gallons.” (Meaning only 1% is clouds) Content of water vapor in the atmosphere varies greatly by region and temperature. Water vapor carries latent heat from evaporation and is by far the most dominate (so-called) greenhouse gas. The resultant clouds reflect and absorb heat during the day, cooling the earth, and slowing heat loss at night, supporting a warmer overnight temperature. If you doubt the heat capacity of water vapor, you’ve obviously never been in a sauna or noticed the 10-deg. (F) increase in room temperature when you take a hot shower.
Diurnal Air Temperature Variation:
We talked about how the earth cools overnight and how water vapor modulates that change by both cooling the earth’s surface by evaporation and carrying latent heat into the atmosphere. Diurnal temperatures vary greatly by region and surface conditions.
“In the absence of extreme air-mass changes, diurnal temperature variations typically range from 10 or fewer degrees in humid, tropical areas, to 40-50 degrees in higher-elevation, arid to semi-arid areas, such as parts of the U.S. Western states’ Intermountain Plateau areas, for example Elko, Nevada, Ashton, Idaho and Burns, Oregon. The higher the humidity is, the lower the diurnal temperature variation is”. (Wikipedia: Diurnal Air Temperature Variations)
If you read this Wiki page, please note that there is no mention of CO2, anywhere! Doesn’t the IPCC claim that CO2 lays like a blanket, heating the earth? Then why aren’t CO2 heat retention qualities mentioned in this article? There is CO2 in the atmosphere at night, isn’t there? So many unanswered questions.
Another quote from the above article: “As solar energy strikes the Earth’s surface each morning, a shallow 1–3-centimetre (0.39–1.18 in) layer of air directly above the ground is heated by conduction. Heat exchange between this shallow layer of warm air and the cooler air above is very inefficient. On a warm summer’s day, for example, air temperatures may vary by 16.5 °C (30 °F) from just above the ground to waist height. Incoming solar radiation exceeds outgoing heat energy for many hours after noon and equilibrium is usually reached from 3–5 p.m. but this may be affected by a variety of different things such as large bodies of water, soil type and cover, wind, cloud cover/water vapor, and moisture on the ground.[1]” Thank you!
Let me make observations about heat in the atmosphere:
1) Only one part of the atmosphere contains and holds heat energy, water vapor.
2) A molecule of H2O releases and carries latent heat during evaporation into the atmosphere.
3) Water vapor loses heat at higher altitude upon condensation.
4) Water vapor is 1.6 times lighter than dry air and rises rapidly through the atmosphere.
5) Hotter surface temperature causes higher evaporation and lighter water vapor.
6) Diurnal temperature drops dramatically in absence of water vapor.
7) CO2 has zero effect on diurnal temperatures.
8) Atmosphere with absence of water vapor is passive regarding heat from earth’s surface and is no more than a conduit to space.
9) Heat measured in the atmosphere is a consequence of incoming solar and surface heat radiation and follows surface temperature.
10) Atmospheric temperature is slave to incoming solar insolation by day and heat released by earth at night.
Does the above give pause about the heat producing/retention capability of CO2?
How about characteristics of CO2?
1) “Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO2) is an acidic colorless gas with a density about 53% higher than that of dry air.” (Wikipedia)
2) “Carbon dioxide is soluble in water, in which it reversibly forms H2CO3 (carbonic acid), which is a weak acid since its ionization in water is incomplete.” (Wikipedia)
3) “The hydration equilibrium constant of carbonic acid is (formula) (at 25 °C). Hence, the majority of the carbon dioxide is not converted into carbonic acid, but remains as CO2 molecules, not affecting the pH.” (Of the ocean) (Wikipedia)
4) “High concentrations of CO2 produced by disturbance of deep lake water saturated with CO2 are thought to have caused 37 fatalities at Lake Monoun, Cameroon in 1984 and 1700 casualties at Lake Nyos, Cameroon in 1986.[105]” (Wikipedia)
5) The IPCC calls CO2 a “Well Mixed Greenhouse Gas” (WMGHG). CO2 is 53% heavier than dry air, with only air currents, rising heat/water vapor to prevent pooling on the surface, as in #4 above.
6) “There is about fifty times as much carbon dioxide dissolved in the oceans as exists in the atmosphere.” (Wikipedia) Ocean Acidification is another hot topic, this quote is something to ponder. A later article will cover this subject in detail.
7) CO2 solubility in water causes heavy rain to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
8) CO2 molecules don’t combine in the atmosphere, therefore act as individual molecules.
Next, we have a discussion of Earth’s Energy Budget.
The two graphs below show elements of the earth that store energy, resulting in Global Warming. They both show identical values: 91% Ocean, 5% Land, 3% Ice, and 1% Atmosphere. These Graphs are from IPCC AR6. In the first graph on the left side, “Stable Climate: In Balance”, represents a perfect world without global warming. On the right, “Today: Imbalanced”, represents a world (since 1970?) with a large (quantity unknown) imbalance of heat in/out and blames Greenhouse Gases.
How ridiculous is this?
FAQ 7.1, Figure 1: The Earth’s energy budget compares the flows of incoming and outgoing of energy that are relevant for the climate system. Since the (typo) at least the 1970s, less energy is flowing out than is flowing in, which leads to excess energy being absorbed by the ocean, land, ice and atmosphere, with the ocean absorbing 91% (Subject to edit)
Even though the graph clearly shows 99% terrestrial influence… 1% atmosphere is the problem? On top of that, the 1% includes all greenhouse gases with water vapor contributing about 80% and the other 20% being the so-called “Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases”.
Evaluation of greenhouse effect by element is impossible, per quote from Wikipedia article “Greenhouse Gas”: “It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not simply the sum of the influence of each gas.” I ask, how can they possibly assign responsibility to CO2?
Another ridiculous assertion is that: we didn’t have a problem until 1970, Huh?
The second graph can be seen, as published, in IPCC AR6. This is an updated version of a graph in IPCC AR5, but I have cropped useless information attached to the bottom of the latest version.
This graph doesn’t mince words: “Earth’s energy imbalance results from increases in greenhouse gases absorbing thermal radiation that would otherwise be emitted to space. This radiative forcing leads to an accumulation of energy in the Earth’s system.” If I read this correctly: 91% Ocean, 5% Land, 3% Ice, and 1% Atmosphere are elements of the earth that contribute “to the Earth’s energy inventory” shown by percent?
Sadly, this is just a mirror image of the first graph, just looks different. No further discussion is required!
Below is the last revelation I want to share with you. I’ve diligently researched climate with the goal of uncovering the truth about climate change. I hope those of you still reading this can recognize the validity of every climate factor presented in the article. I challenge anyone to prove any statement made here to be invalid!
The role of atmospheric temperature about melting of snow/ice sheets/ice caps/glaciers.
The IPCC AR6 report blames CO2 for global warming, using questionable science.
The IPCC AR6 report claims this gradual rise in global temperature, which they blame as unequivocally human influence, causes:
1) Rising Sea Surface Temperature (SST).
2) Rapid melting of snow/ice sheets/ice caps/glaciers.
3) Rising sea levels.
Absolutely not true!
1) Rising Sea Surface Temperature (SST): Sea Surface Temperature is affected by four major elements, solar irradiance, evaporation, rain/snowfall, and air/ocean currents, period. Temperature of the atmosphere above the ocean, simply reflects ocean temperature. The only element of the atmosphere involved is water vapor. An additional element is underwater volcanoes and thermal vents. The prevailing scientific theory says negligible effect, mainly because it’s impossible to measure. If they could, they would!
2) Rapid melting of snow/ice sheets/ice caps/glaciers: It’s a fact that atmospheric temperature has minimal (closer to zero) effect on snow melt! Direct sunlight on the snow (as in vertical faces) and on land surfaces touching the snow are what causes melting. Heat transfer by atmosphere is very inefficient. (Besides, the temperature in Greenland on the ice sheet is approx. -33 deg. F).
3) Rising sea levels: Since the atmosphere does not significantly melt snow/ice, how can perceived Global Warming cause sea level rise? The gradual melting has continued since the end of Younger Dryas, approx. 12,000 years ago, even though CO2 levels were lower than today! Sea level (according to Paleoclimatology) was 400 feet lower than today, 12,000 yrs. ago. Nobody can predict how fast the snow will continue to melt or what effect that undeniable melting will have on sea level. Using models based on fictitious CO2 level increases, to show catastrophic sea level changes, are invalid!
Climate on our planet has followed natural laws since the beginning of time and anybody thinking they can alter or predict climate, is fooling themselves and potentially you, think about that! More articles will follow, covering these same subjects in more detail!
Author: 7_Sages (Revised Jan. 22, 2023)
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